While the Federal Liberal Opposition Leaders are voicing concerns about the level of Australian Public Debt, Glenn Stevens is not concerned. This does not mean that the RBA will hold fire on rates during the election period – certainly not.
The reserve bank board will meet in August as they do every month, it will consider all the issues for the economy and do its job, elections or not.
The opposition announced a further $1.2 billion of budget spending cuts on Tuesday, bringing its running total to $45.8 billion.
This is slightly less than the $46.7 billion of cuts flagged in its budget reply in May in light of the government’s updated economic statement, released by Treasurer Wayne Swan last week, and because of changes associated with the planned mining tax.
Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey said the coalition was making announcements about savings because the budget was in deficit and government debt continued to grow each day.
“So you have got the Australian government with its foot on the accelerator spending and you have got the Reserve Bank with its foot on the brake increasing interest rates,” he told reporters in Melbourne.
But Mr Stevens clearly doesn’t see it that way.
According to Glenn Stevens, compared to the rest of the developed world, Australia’s levels of public debt are virtually non-existent.
“Based on figures recently published by Canberra, we are currently holding debt at five or six per cent of GDP. This is closer to the lowest National debt in Australia’s history.
Liberals have initiated the interest rate debate early in the campaign, saying rates will always be lower under a coalition government because it always spends less.
“I can guarantee that we will take the upward pressure off interest rates,” Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said on Monday.
Similar comments backfired on the former Howard government when the Reserve Bank took the unprecedented decision to raise rates during the 2007 election campaign – the sixth consecutive rise.
A rate rise also looks like a possibility in this campaign.
In the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s July board meeting released on Tuesday, it says inflation readings on July 28 will be key to the board’s interest rate thinking.
It expects the consumer price index will rise above its two to three per cent inflation target band because of a rise in some taxes.
But the more policy-sensitive measure of underlying inflation is expected to show “further moderation”, although it was likely to remain in the top half of the target range over the period ahead.
“The important question for the board at its next meeting would be whether the new information materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation,” the minutes said.